President Joe Biden would narrowly beat Donald Trump by one-point if the 2024 election were held today, according to a poll published Wednesday, but he would lose to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

Trump is the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination making a repeat of the 2020 election the most likely match-up.

But Haley has gained ground in primary polls as some Republicans look for a candidate with less baggage than the former president.

The new national poll for Fox News found that Trump would take 48 per cent of the general election vote to Biden’s 49 percent.

In contrast, DeSantis would win by 49 percent to 47 percent, while Haley would take 49 to 45 percent.

Former President Donald Trump

Former President Donald Trump

President Joe Biden

President Joe Biden

For the first time, the Fox News poll has President Joe Biden ahead of former President Donald Trump, if only by one point in a survey with a margin of error of +/- three points

The poll of 1007 registered voters carries a margin of error of three points either way, showing just how close a contest it would be if held right now. 

‘A Biden-Trump rematch starts at pressure-cooker level and keeps Democrats highly united,’ said Chris Anderson, a Democrat who conducts Fox News surveys with Republican Daron Shaw. 

‘If Republicans somehow pick someone other than Trump, the pressure immediately drops, and some Democrats might toy with backing the Republican — that doesn’t happen if Trump’s the nominee.’

Other polls have shown that Trump’s history — his denial of the 2020 election results, the string of court cases, and chaotic time as president — could be a key factor in turning out the Democratic vote.

And it is the first time in the Fox News poll that Trump has fared worse than his GOP rivals in a matchup against Biden. 

One note of caution is that the numbers reflect national share of the vote, when presidential elections are decided on a state-by-state basis with an electoral college. 

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis would both beat Biden if the election were held today, according to the poll

However, Trump retains a strong grip on his party base and looks unstoppable for the 2024 Republican nomination. 

The pollsters also asked Republican primary voters who they wanted as their candidate next year, and 59 percent said Trump.

DeSantis remains an extremely distant second with 13 percent. 

Haley registers her best showing yet with ten percent support (up five points from a month earlier), while biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, whose appeal had grown after two strong debate performances, falls back into single digits with seven percent (down four points). 

None of the other runners breaks five percent.

Republicans will hold their first nominating contest in January with the Iowa caucuses. New Hampshire will hold a more traditional presidential primary shortly thereafter, followed by Nevada, South Carolina and Michigan. 

Some Republican donors are pushing for Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin to enter the contest, seeing him as the sort of moderate figure with the best chance of uniting the party against Biden.

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